John Bolton: Four ways Republicans can move on from the election results

Post Photo

This article appeared in The Washington Post on December 10, 2020. Click here to view the original article.

By John Bolton
December 10, 2020

On Monday, Donald Trump will officially lose the 2020 presidential election. In their respective states, electoral college delegations chosen by the citizens will meet to cast their ballots. If there are no “faithless” electors, 306 votes will go to Joe Biden for president and Kamala D. Harris for vice president, and 232 to Trump and Mike Pence. There will be no lawful way to change this result.

Most Americans will be relieved that the election is over. Unfortunately, too many Republicans will see only the ratification of a “stolen election.” Why? Because for months Trump has proclaimed he could lose only through foul play, and because too few Republicans said this was nonsense.

Rather than “America First,” Trump’s true slogan is “Trump First,” so his fantasy will not end easily. Nonetheless, starting with the resolution of the electoral college vote, Republicans, and all Americans, can take significant steps to move beyond Nov. 3, without endless, debilitating reargument of what happened.

First, everyone — Republicans especially — should recognize that the national political dynamic will change irrevocably at noon on Jan. 20. It will never be the same again for Trump. There will be a new president, doing his job, whether Trump adjusts to it or not. Even though barely more than five weeks now remain until the transfer of power, many who have been unable or unwilling to feel the tectonic plates shifting will finally recognize the change. Mar-a-Lago is not the same as the Oval Office. Foreign leaders will not flock to Florida for meetings.

Despite four years as president, Trump never fully grasped the issues before him, and he won’t learn anything new once he leaves. His observations will become increasingly irrelevant.

Trump will not disappear entirely. But the thrill will assuredly fade.

Second, with this coming dramatic shift in the political universe in mind, every Republican as of next Monday’s electoral college vote should publicly acknowledge what they have known in silence for many weeks: Biden is the president-elect. We Republicans should all just say it and get it over with.

If confronted by bitter-enders, stuck on Trump and dreaming of continuing the fight, for example on Jan. 6 when the electoral college ballots are opened and counted in Congress, Republicans should take their cue from Nancy Reagan: Just say no.

Third, there is every reason to believe Republicans can make Democrats’ hold on the White House last just one term. Analysts across the political spectrum have noted the GOP’s November successes, other than Trump’s loss. Winning at all levels in coming elections, however, requires a party not obsessed with contemplating its 2020 presidential navel.

That will necessitate disbanding the GOP’s circular firing squads now blasting away in Georgia, Arizona and elsewhere. This internecine warfare is not along ideological lines; by any coherent measure, all the main participants are conservatives. The common denominator is that Trump set these dumpster fires to advance his own interests.

The Republican Party’s lasting strength is its focus on policy, not personalities, and certainly not cults. To reclaim the high ground, national, state and local party structures must focus impartially on enhancing support for all Republicans, not just Trump. We must have open debates on policy, and new platforms reflecting those debates. As long as Trump continues broaching a possible 2024 candidacy, this neutrality is threatened.

Any party official unable to remain impartial should be a candidate for retirement. Historically, after presidential-election defeats, Republicans have sought new party leadership. Following Barry Goldwater’s 1964 defeat, Ray Bliss took charge as national chairman, with excellent 1966 and 1968 results; after Gerald Ford’s 1976 loss, Bill Brock stepped up and laid the groundwork for Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory.

This is an entirely normal intra-party transition. It is not about any particular losing candidate or party official, and saying so casts no blame. But without ironclad assurances of impartiality by current party officials, based on their personal honor, Republicans risk missing a big opportunity for revitalization. Contested elections for party positions are not bad things.

Fourth, speaking as a baby boomer, I make perhaps the most painful point: Republicans should begin thinking about finally selecting a non-boomer presidential candidate. Recalling Ronald Reagan’s line about Walter Mondale, the “youth and inexperience” of these late-comers may be a burden for them, but it should not be insuperable.

If Biden again bears the Democratic standard in 2024 — when he will turn 82 — and faces a non-boomer Republican opponent, the contrast will be palpable. If Biden doesn’t run, and a 78-year-old Trump is again the Republican nominee, the contrast will also be palpable. This one should not be hard for the GOP, as long as the succession is based on merit, not heredity.

The U.A.E. Needs U.S. Arms to Ward Off Iran

Post Photo

Misguided opposition in the Senate bodes ill for U.S. Mideast policy in the Biden administration.

This article appeared in The Wall Street Journal on December 6, 2020. Click here to view the original article.

By John Bolton
December 6, 2020

Senate opposition to the proposed U.S. arms sales to the United Arab Emirates reflects a dangerous reversion to the Obama-era understanding of the Middle East. While opponents of the deal claim that the Emirates have misused other U.S. weapons in Yemen, the real issue is much broader.

A Senate vote on legislation to halt the $23 billion arms deal is expected in days. While opposition will likely fail—even if the bill passes, supermajorities would be needed to override the expected presidential veto—the thinking behind it foreshadows an ill-advised Biden administration policy toward Iran.

The Iranian threat to regional peace and security has altered the strategic reality of the Middle East since the misbegotten 2015 nuclear deal. Arab states increasingly fear Tehran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, but also its support for terrorism in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, as well as its conventional military activities. The decision by Bahrain and the U.A.E. to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel shows how Iran’s increased—and largely unchallenged—belligerence has realigned the Middle East’s correlation of forces.

Many of these shifts stem from the nuclear deal, which released between $120 billion and $150 billion in frozen assets and freed Iran from arduous economic sanctions, providing Tehran the resources to expand its military and clandestine capabilities. Iran’s Quds Force used its share of the windfall to beef up support for Iraqi Shiite militias, Syria’s Assad, and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. In response, the Emirates and other U.S. friends rightly want more-advanced arms.

Less reported, but of vital importance to the Gulf Cooperation Council’s six Arab member states, was Iran’s dramatic expansion of support for Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Previous Iranian aid to the Houthis had been intended to stalemate Saudi and Emirati efforts to install a stable, pro-GCC government in San’a, but in 2017 Tehran ramped up shipments of sophisticated weaponry that could strike far beyond Yemen’s borders. This threatened Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure; important civilian airports in Riyadh, Dubai and Abu Dhabi; and commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, critical sea lanes to the Suez Canal.

The Gulf Arab states are entirely justified in resisting Tehran’s intrusion into their backyard. Yemen’s conflict has had more than its share of brutality, much of it caused by the Houthis’ inhumanity and ruthless exploitation of food-aid programs. Iran’s intervention and cynical manipulation of the disarray has compounded the humanitarian problem.

Blocking arms sales to the U.A.E. or Saudi Arabia wouldn’t ameliorate conditions in Yemen. The Emiratis have scaled back their involvement, and the Saudi-led coalition has taken much-needed steps to avoid civilian casualties. U.S. weapons are needed more urgently to defend against Iran’s threat in the Gulf. U.S. vacillation could thwart the emerging Israeli-Arab template for regional peace and stability. The Arabs are deeply concerned by President Trump’s policy gyrations, including troop withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan. They fear that under Joe Biden the U.S. presence will recede further, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to Iran’s aspirations for hegemony.

Unlike in years past, Israel doesn’t object to the proposed arms deal. While it is too early to call Israel’s ties with the Arabs “alliances,” such relations could arise. In any case, they are all U.S. allies. Strengthening these links benefits America.

Other than virtue signaling, what conceivable reason is there to oppose arming a vulnerable ally, the U.A.E.? The most troubling possibility is that Mr. Biden and Senate Democrats cling to the romantic notion that Tehran’s ayatollahs long to join “the international community.” If only America and its regional allies dropped their hostility and Washington rejoined the 2015 deal, the argument goes, Iran’s nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile programs would cease to be problems. Other issues could be negotiated and the Middle East would be at peace. This was nonsense in 2015 and still is.

The Biden team stresses constantly the need to strengthen relations with allies—conventional wisdom for all but Mr. Trump. But not every ally thinks alike. America’s Middle Eastern friends, who live well within range of Tehran’s missiles, drones, terrorist proxies and conventional forces, don’t buy the “peace in our time” theory. U.S. allies in Europe want to revitalize the nuclear deal, but does it tell us anything that Russia and China agree?

This is an early test: Does Mr. Biden know that Iran is the biggest threat to regional security? Will he realize how dramatically the ground in the Middle East has shifted?

The Conservative Future Requires Optimism and Confidence

Post Photo

How the GOP can regain the voters Trump alienated, but also keep those whom he attracted.

This article appeared in The Dispatch on November 30, 2020. Click here to view the original article.

By John Bolton
November 30, 2020

Donald Trump’s post-November 3 conduct has been consistent with his entire presidency: wholly centered on Donald Trump. One of the worst consequences of this self-indulgence for conservatives is the treacherous fixation on whether one agrees or disagrees with Trump. Even when he embraces some element of conservative truth, he typically so exaggerates or distorts it that one can barely discern the underlying principle.

Or worse. Remember, for example, his diktat at an April 13 coronavirus briefing: “When somebody’s the president of the United States, the authority is total, and that’s the way it’s got to be.” An unvarnished Trumpism, made in Trumpian style, and utterly contradictory to American conservative thinking.

Rather than aligning with principle (which Trump lacks), long-standing conservatives torqued themselves uncomfortably to support his positions. This is unnatural and unwise, and we must stop it. Politics based on personality rather than philosophy is not conservatism’s credo. When politicians go astray, we judge their failures against our principles. We do not readjust our principles to suit their personal interests, as the paradigm case of Richard Nixon demonstrates. James Buckley, New York’s Conservative Party senator, was the first Republican to call for Nixon’s resignation. In the congressional delegation to the Oval Office that told Nixon he had to go, Barry Goldwater had the most impact.

Liberal pundits complain ceaselessly that today’s Republicans do not demonstrate sufficient courage against Trump. This is surely what liberals want to believe, but they misread conservatives as badly as Trump’s misreading that he owns the party.

Consider Michigan, where Trump’s post-election conspiracy theories met their Waterloo. Defeated by more than 150,000 votes, he authorized litigation asserting massive fraud and electoral malfeasance, as he did nationwide. Not one of his cases produced facts changing even a single vote. This conspiracy must be so vast and so successful that it left no evidence behind, making it modern history’s pre-eminent covert operation.

Rebuffed in state and federal courts, Trump abandoned legal reasoning for pure political force, attempting to rewrite the constitutional role of state legislators to generate slates of pro-Trump electors. He summoned Mike Shirkey and Lee Chatfield, the top Republicans in Michigan’s Senate and House, to Washington, hoping to intimidate them into overturning their state’s counting and certification process. They refused.

The pressure shifted to Michigan’s State Board of Canvassers. The Republican national and Michigan state chairs urged the board to postpone certification for two weeks, thereby enabling more mischief. Republican board member Aaron Van Langevelde disagreed, in plainly conservative terms: “We have a clear legal duty to certify the results of the election, as shown by the returns that were given to us. … We cannot and should not go beyond that. As John Adams once said, ‘We are a government of laws, not men.’”

Shirkey, Chatfield and Van Langevelde are heroes, and far from alone. National GOP leaders can profit from their example. If these three Michiganders can do it, so can the rest of us.

With Trump’s efforts now defeated in fact, if not yet in his imagination, what comes next? One immediate project is producing documentation analogous to the Black Book of Communism, to serve as a definitive refutation of Trump’s extravagant, unsubstantiated claims of “stealing the election.” Such a work will not convince all conspiracy theorists, but we need an authoritative, even encyclopedic, recital of the truth for future use.

Longer term, there must be a broad “conversation” about the direction of the conservative movement and the Republican party. Much of the havoc Trump wreaked is uniquely due to his ego, his public style, and his distortion of basic conservative philosophy. We should have no illusions that excising Trump’s lesions from the body politic will be easy. Many conservatives invested themselves in his success and have not yet receded. Still, there is no point in demanding that they confess error as an auto da fe. We need instead a “malice toward none, charity toward all” approach, which is fully justified by the Democratic left’s larger threat, whether from Biden or his successors.

Our objective should be restoring to conservatism an unmistakably Reaganite optimism and confidence: the “morning in America” crowd defending our “shining city on a hill,” not Trump’s dystopian “American carnage” approach. We can thereby regain the voters Trump alienated, but also keep those whom he attracted. Blue-collar families who left the Democratic party in 1980 were called “Reagan Democrats,” and those who have voted for Trump are essentially their contemporary counterparts. The proposed “conversation” may be lengthy, but there is every reason to believe it will succeed with enough work.

We need to start now, in time for Georgia’s critical January 5 runoffs. Victory for incumbents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler will produce a 52-vote Republican Senate majority, a major check against Biden administration excesses. Placating desolate Trump supporters is purportedly the rationale for not speaking truthfully about Trump’s defeat, but hard political logic points in exactly the opposite direction. By pursuing his personal interests, Trump has vastly complicated the prospects for winning both runoffs. For no reason other than ego, he induced Perdue and Loeffler to demand the resignation of Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s Republican secretary of state. Now, some Trump supporters argue for boycotting Perdue and Loeffler because they are insufficiently pro-Trump, perhaps writing in Trump’s own name to show their dissatisfaction.

Nothing like fratricide to kick off a crucial election campaign. Obviously, keeping a GOP Senate majority is the immediate electoral priority, which underscores precisely why remaining silent on Trump’s conspiracy theories is so damaging. His impending campaign visit to Georgia could well cause more harm. Republican voters will accept the truth if explained rationally by responsible party leaders. But if all they hear is Trump barking, they may well believe, and far beyond Georgia, that no one disputes his version of “the stolen elections.” That would be dangerous beyond calculation.

Looking toward 2024, the risks of silence only grow. The “Trump lane” to the party’s presidential nomination will be congested, especially if Trump is still in it. Just as Democrats almost blew their 2020 prospects by endlessly rehashing “Russian collusion,” we could do the same by relitigating “the steal” merely to gratify Trump’s fantasy. While a crowded race to be Trump’s heir would free up lanes for those who do not seek that role, such lanes might disappear if the “stolen election” becomes dogma. It is far easier to avoid this calamity by speaking now, rather than waiting until minds and memories are hardened by unrefuted Trump logorrhea.

Preparing the battlefield for 2024 will largely unfold through Republican responses to Biden’s priorities. We will see no lack of enthusiasm for the opposition party’s most important duty: opposition. The issue is whether we proceed in Trump mode, further undermining the integrity and legitimacy of our institutions, or whether we fight as true conservatives, attacking leftist policies without despoiling the foundations of America’s flourishing.

The Senate in particular will have a frontline role dealing with the Biden presidency through the “advice and consent” process for his nominees. Several Republican senators have already criticized those nominated for national-security positions, laying down markers that they might fight confirmation. I agree with their policy critiques, especially Biden’s likely fecklessness on China. What they have not addressed, however, is the Senate’s proper role in assessing executive branch nominees (life-tenured judicial nominees residing in a completely separate analytical framework). In a world truer to the intent of the Framers, the Senate would grant wide deference to a president’s choices, recognizing that his views control executive policies, not the views of his subordinates. The legitimate targets of opposition should be only those with grave personal failings or views beyond the range of reason.

I have some standing to raise this issue. Twice in George W. Bush’s presidency, Biden unjustifiably tried to block my nominations, first as an undersecretary of State, and later as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. My complaint, however, is constitutional, not personal. In recent years, increasing partisanship in advice-and-consent matters has risked transforming our system of separated powers into something quasi-parliamentary. So far, Biden’s nominees are not beyond the pale. Quite the contrary. He and his team instead embody Disraeli’s famous put-down of Gladstone’s front bench: “You behold a range of exhausted volcanoes. Not a flame flickers on a single pallid crest.”

Allow Biden these nominees; it will serve him right. Make their confirmations miserable, to be sure. Harry them with uncomfortable questions, exposing the weaknesses in Biden’s and their own stated policy positions and records. Once they take office, haul them back repeatedly for hearings. This would all serve the greater good. I am not so naïve to believe that reversion to the norm here will arise solely from constitutional arguments. Still, one can appeal to conservative Senators aspiring to the presidency to imagine their reactions when Democrats with blood in their eyes are rampaging against their nominees. Just a suggestion.

With Trump thrashing around for the next four years and Biden in the White House, conservatives face a sustained two-front struggle. Nonetheless, it is entirely winnable with persistent concentration and effort. We must remind ourselves that it was always morning in Reagan’s America, and it should be in ours as well.

How Trump is weakening America

Post Photo

How Trump is weakening America: His refusal to concede defeat strengthens Russia and China

This article appeared in The New York Daily News on November 17, 2020. Click here to view the original article.

By John Bolton
November 17, 2020

As Russia, China and other adversaries try to undermine our citizenry’s confidence in American institutions, Donald Trump has been their hopefully unwitting ally. Oblivious to anything not directly benefitting him, Trump spent much of the 2020 campaign, and has spent nearly every waking hour since Nov. 3 complaining that the outcome was rigged, and that massive conspiracies to commit fraud are overturning his re-election.

Trump’s unprecedented insistence that the core machinery of U.S. elections (voter identification and vote casting, counting and certification) is being manipulated is obviously wrong. Significant protections and safeguards are built into the electoral process in every state and county because we know that the possibilities for fraud and stolen elections are ever-present, notwithstanding the dewy-eyed view of some commentators. If Trump had evidence of election-rigging or fraud, he should have produced it by now. He has not; lawsuits have flamed out or been radically pared back.

But his continued aspersions on the 2020 election buttress the case our enemies make against us. Now, they can quote an American president for their own ends.

Without a doubt, Russian and Chinese efforts in the 2016 and 2020 elections have been devoted to undermining America’s confidence in its own institutions, increasing mistrust among our fellow citizens, and confusing the public discourse with false and misleading information. They have most certainly used cyberwarfare against the integrity of our elections, and China’s subversive efforts especially have ranged far more broadly, as Vice President Mike Pence has previously made clear.

We, and Trump in particular, do Moscow’s and Beijing’s work for them when we argue whether they favor Trump or favor Biden. Russia and China favor themselves; merely inducing Americans to argue about their strategies is likely a vital part of the strategies themselves. Trump has been told all this, but his fascination with himself bleaches out all other concerns in his public remarks.

Attacking America’s institutions is not a Republican Party or conservative hallmark. For Trump, it is something of a commonplace. For example, in a 2017 pre-Super Bowl interview with Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly, Trump said he respected Russia’s Vladimir Putin. O’Reilly responded that Putin was “a killer.” Trump paused for a few seconds — perhaps actually reflecting on what was he wanted to say — before responding, “We’ve got a lot of killers. You think our country is so innocent?”

This Trumpian moral equivalency emerges all too often. Prior to his embarrassing exchange with O’Reilly, Trump said of Putin in 2015, “he’s running his country, and at least he’s a leader, unlike what he have in this country.” The list of comparable examples is depressingly long.

After Nov. 3, Trump’s antics reached fever-pitch. In nearly incoherent remarks during the early hours of Wednesday, Nov. 4, as the vote totals were turning against him, Trump said, “This is a fraud on the American public. This is an embarrassment to our country. We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.” On Nov. 5, Trump said further, “If you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us.” Even when he seemingly lets the truth slip out, as on Nov. 15, when he admitted a Biden win, he quickly reverses course.

All of this is propaganda, which does constitute “an embarrassment to our country,” coming as it does from the president. Trump’s record over four years, and continuing right until today, is in the sociological expression Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan popularized, “defining deviancy down” in the political world. Our expectations for Trump are so low, we have lost the capacity to be surprised.

Fortunately, however, Trump’s abnormality provides precisely the way to repair the damage his presidency, and especially his post-election performance, have caused us internationally. We must stress that Trump is an aberration, an anomaly, rather than an accurate reflection of the American system or its people. Trump’s war with the election results, sadly but ironically helpfully, is the best proof of his aberrant status.

To repair the damage that his tweets and his actions have caused in recent days, as with repairing the larger damage he has done to our reputation overseas, we need to emphasize that the 2020 election has, hopefully, brought a return to “normalcy.” Biden may not like being this century’s Warren Harding, but that may just be his lot, at least in the rest of the world’s estimate.

We will have significant debates between normal Republicans and Democrats about Biden’s foreign and domestic policies, which we and the world will welcome as normal, and this too will help repair Trump’s damage. The process could actually move quickly. Let’s hope so.

Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, is author of “The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir.”

The China Nightmare’ Review: Beijing Never Got the Memo

Post Photo

China is not the juggernaut of Wall Street financiers’ imaginations, but that doesn’t make its expansionism any less of a threat.

This article appeared in The Wall Street Journal on November 17, 2020. Click here to view the original article.

By John Bolton
November 17, 2020

With Joe Biden’s election now declared by the press, albeit still unacknowledged by Donald Trump, it is appropriate to consider what policies his administration will pursue starting Jan. 20. Any new president’s national-security policy would be more coherent, consistent and sustained than Mr. Trump’s. The risk with Mr. Biden is not that his policy will be chaotic, but that it will be badly misguided.

One thing is certain: China is the most significant international threat that America—and the global West generally—now faces. And that will be true for the rest of this century. Mr. Biden’s real views on dealing with China are obscure, more collateral damage from an election campaign that rarely debated foreign and defense policy in any substantive way.

Much remains to be seen, especially in light of China’s responsibility for worsening the coronavirus pandemic by its concealment and disinformation. Beijing’s disingenuousness has worsened U.S. public opinion about China, a shift echoed world-wide, potentially far more negatively than the adverse reactions to the 1989 Tiananmen Square repression.

Dan Blumenthal of the American Enterprise Institute has stepped into this void with “The China Nightmare: The Grand Ambitions of a Decaying State.” Serious practitioners and students of U.S.-China relations will need to reckon with his analysis.

Mr. Blumenthal’s approach will catch many by surprise. He says plainly that “China has taken advantage of American complacency.” He rejects the conventional thinking that China’s domestic economy is still moving from strength to strength, thereby providing Chinese president Xi Jinping and the Communist Party with the wherewithal to insist on China’s centrality in Asia and to challenge the U.S. globally. Indeed, it is key to Mr. Blumenthal’s “China nightmare” thesis that Mr. Xi’s domestic policies (and those of his immediate predecessor, Hu Jintao) have rolled back many of the dramatic, market-oriented reforms of the Deng Xiaoping era in favor of increased state control. The Xi regime is impairing China’s economic growth (and any prospect for an innovation-based economy) and laying the basis for failure internationally. Mr. Blumenthal writes that the main thesis of his book “is that despite (or perhaps because of) China’s growing internal weaknesses, it is pushing forward grand strategic ambitions.” China is not the juggernaut of Wall Street financiers’ imaginations, but that doesn’t make its expansionism less a threat.

Mr. Blumenthal challenges received wisdom in other ways. Contrary to the prevailing mantra of China’s “peaceful rise,” his analysis stresses that Mao Zedong and his successors repeatedly used military force against their geographical neighbors. They are doing it today, from the East and South China Seas to the “line of actual control” on the disputed frontier with India.

Domestically, the Xi regime is, among other things, engaging in armed repression against ethnic minorities like Tibetans and Uighurs; crushing dissent in Hong Kong (and thereby violating the “handover” agreement with the U.K.); and initiating a “social credit” system so the state can rank all Chinese citizens in every aspect of their lives, from jaywalking to dissent. China faces “insurmountable social problems,” Mr. Blumenthal writes. But “a weaker China . . . does not necessarily mean a risk-averse China.”

While China’s theft of intellectual property is a huge problem for the U.S., Mr. Blumenthal argues further, we cannot ignore the reality that America and Japan purposely transferred considerable scientific and technological knowhow to China. When we assign responsibility for the consequences of this catastrophic error, we need not look far.

Beijing apparently never received the memo that the age of empire is over. The Chinese Communists have focused on fully restoring the Qing empire’s boundaries, and no lacuna in achieving that goal is more painful than Taiwan’s de facto independence. In resolutely Orwellian fashion, China has insisted so fiercely on its distorted interpretation of the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué’s “one China” language that even Americans now unwittingly accept China’s version. That suits Beijing; it doubtless hopes Mr. Biden’s team will find those pesky Taiwanese as much a nuisance as did Jimmy Carter, for thwarting what Mr. Blumenthal calls China’s “main strategic-military priority since the end of the Cold War.”

Taiwan’s example of freedom and openness, Mr. Blumenthal contends, is enormously disruptive on the mainland. The U.S. could put the Communist Party in a vise by using information statecraft and other forms of political warfare. China has for years been waging political warfare against us, so it is well past time to implement a counterstrategy. In cyberspace, America is doing precisely that, forestalling or retaliating against efforts to influence our domestic political discourse, thus building deterrence to prevent such attacks in the future.

While a true grand strategy toward China is urgently needed, Beijing’s obsession with Taipei provides Washington an asymmetric response to objectionable Chinese behavior. We can answer its belligerence and intransigence through diplomatic or political means, wounding the Chinese Communists deeply, and simultaneously bolstering Taiwan.

The most consequential step, one I have urged for over 20 years, is for America to grant Taiwan full diplomatic recognition. By all customary international law criteria (a defined territory and population, a capital city, and a government carrying out normal governmental functions), Taiwan is a sovereign state, and democratic to boot. Relations between the U.S. and China would chill dramatically, but that is what China should fear, not America. There are smaller steps Washington could take. We could, for example, regularly receive Taiwanese officials in U.S. government buildings, which would seriously undermine the legitimacy of China’s campaign to force Taiwan into a morganatic union.

Our relations with Beijing will not get easier over the next four years. Mr. Blumenthal has done the Biden administration a favor with “The China Nightmare.” Let’s hope the president-elect takes advantage of it.

Trump will draw up hitlist of ‘traitors’ to blame – I fully expect to be on it JOHN BOLTON

Post Photo

THE 2020 US election is over. Welcome to another uniquely American institution, the “transition” to the Biden Administration.

This article appeared in The Daily Express on November 15, 2020. Click here to view the original article.

By John Bolton
November 15, 2020

We have perhaps the longest transition of any democracy, inherited from the Constitution’s first days, because of the geographic reach and limited transport capabilities among the 13 newly united states. Today, with presidential Inaugurations fixed for January 20, the transition is over a month shorter than originally. America’s most important presidential transition followed the 1800 election, when John Adams, the defeated Federalist incumbent, handed over to his Republican challenger, Thomas Jefferson.

In 1797, George Washington left office graciously, succeeded by Adams, his own Vice President. For Adams to accept defeat by the opposition party, however, was a big deal.

Jefferson said memorably in a brief inaugural address “we are all Republicans; we are all Federalists.”

He was sworn in by the new Chief Justice, John Marshall, nominated by Adams after his defeat, and confirmed by the last Federalist Senate majority after their defeat; so much for the supposed “inappropriateness” of nominating Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court before the 2020 election.

Marshall was serving contemporaneously as Adams’ Secretary of State, and also served under Jefferson for approximately a month, a practice now unthinkable.

The 1800-01 transition was not free from rancour. Adams left town before Jefferson’s swearing-in, something we may also see on January 20.

But in their later years, Jefferson and Adams renewed their friendship from the time they crafted the Declaration of Independence.

They both died on July 4, 1826, the Declaration’s fiftieth anniversary. You can’t make it up.

Can anyone imagine Trump playing the roles of the Founding Fathers? Of course not. He will not leave graciously like Washington; so far, he has made Adams look like a man of noblesse oblige; and, unlike Jefferson, he is incapable of saying “we are all Republicans, we are all Democrats.”

So, what is likely in the two months before Joe Biden is sworn in?

At present, Trump has not only not conceded, he continues to insist the election was rigged.

He has unleashed Rudy Giuliani and other surrogates to “litigate” his legal challenges through news conferences and interviews, rather than in State and Federal courts.

Press reports indicate that lawyers previously recruited by the Trump campaign are now making themselves unavailable to join the legal efforts, and new recruits are scarce.

Judicial results for Trump so far are dismal, and little or no probative evidence or new legal arguments seem to be forthcoming.

The likely outcome is that Trump’s badly-faltering legal offensive will continue to collapse, perhaps ending with a whimper within the week. That doesn’t mean Trump will concede, gracefully or otherwise. Instead, he will proclaim “stab in the back” theories about why he lost: list the many “traitors” in his Administration and campaign who undercut him (I expect to be on that list, and in very good company indeed); and attack the always unpopular news media, political pollsters, and left-wing activists now poised to destroy the country.

Make no mistake, unless Republican leaders speak out against this fantasy, Trump will convince many people that the 2020 election was stolen.

Commentators left and right argue that any effort to present the truth to Republican base voters will inevitably fail, so loyal are they to Trump. Ironically, this theory’s most ardent advocates are leftist Democrats, who hope to tie the Trump albatross around Republicans’ necks forever. The stakes are high.

Ultimately, of course, if truth cannot prevail, the future would indeed be dire.

But all that is really required is for Republican leaders other than Trump to do some leading.

If more speak out, the Trump fantasy can be exposed, and his supporters will reconcile themselves with his defeat while remaining loyal to what will hopefully be a revived, Reaganite Republican party.

In the meantime, the current controversy over whether Biden and his team can formally begin the transition process will also be resolved.

Growing numbers of congressional Republicans are pressing for Biden and his senior staff to receive intelligence briefings; others have concluded what should now be obvious, namely that the formal transition itself should get underway.

There need be no admission or concession by Trump that he has lost in order to make the prudent management point that whoever wins needs to be fully prepared on January 20.

Trump obviously doesn’t need a transition, but Biden does, and the sooner it begins, the better.

Forecasting what happens after January 20 remains difficult until the results of two runoff elections for Georgia’s Senate seats are held on January 5.

Peculiarities of Georgia election law require the runoffs, which will be hotly fought. If Republicans prevail in just one, they will retain control of the Senate; if they win both, they will have come through a difficult 2020 campaign losing just one seat net.

Effectively, therefore, anything Biden wants will require dealing with Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, who will be the second most powerful man in Washington.

Somewhat under-reported is the success story for Republicans in the House of Representatives, where they are already projected to gain six-to-seven seats from their pre-November 3 totals, and probably more.

A majority of the House is 218 members, and Republicans could be just around 212. If House Democrats maintain their unity, they can still work their will, but the possibility of splitting their slender majority present numerous opportunities for Republicans.

Even more troubling for Democrats and Speaker Nancy Pelosi are the upcoming 2022 elections; in US history the incumbent President’s congressional party almost always suffers losses, sometime quite significant, in the midterms.

This shadow alone will diminish the Democrats’ maneuvering room for the next two years.

In short, the 2020 election was a loss for Trump, but a surprising success for Republicans in the House and Senate, and also in the States, where they picked up one additional governership, and several state legislative houses, crucial in the redistricting required by the 2020 census results. Stay tuned!

Time is running out for Trump — and Republicans who coddle him

Post Photo

This article appeared in The Washington Post on November 11, 2020. Click here to view the original article.

By John Bolton
November 11, 2020

As of this writing, the Republican Party has not suffered permanent damage to its integrity and reputation because of President Trump’s post-election rampaging. This will not be true much longer.

Trump has so far failed to do so, and there is no indication he can. If he can’t, his “right” to contest the election is beside the point. The real issue is the grievous harm he is causing to public trust in America’s constitutional system. Trump’s time is running out, even as his rhetoric continues escalating. And time is running out for Republicans who hope to maintain the party’s credibility, starting with Georgia’s two Senate runoffs in January. Here is the cold political reality: Trump is enhancing his own brand (in his mind) while harming the Republican brand. The party needs a long internal conversation about the post-Trump era, but first it needs to get there honorably.

Consider the competing interests. Donald Trump’s is simple and straightforward: Donald Trump. The near-term Republican interest is winning the Georgia runoffs. The long-term Republican interest emphatically involves winning those Senate seats, but it also involves rejecting Trump’s personalized, erratic, uncivil, unpresidential and ultimately less-than-effective politics and governance.

One approach holds that coddling Trump while he trashes the U.S. electoral system will help him get over the loss, thereby making it easier to reconcile him to leaving the Oval Office. But this coddling strategy is exactly backward. The more Republican leaders kowtow, the more Trump believes he is still in control and the less likely he will do what normal presidents do: make a gracious concession speech; fully cooperate with the president-elect in a smooth transition process; and validate the election process itself by joining his successor at the Jan. 20 inauguration.

Coddling proponents plead that an enraged Trump will jeopardize the chances of victory in the Georgia runoffs. But that is true only if party leaders do not speak up, explaining to voters what the real facts are. Do we in the GOP not trust our own base enough to absorb the truth? They will find out in due course anyway if Trump’s election litigation indeed crashes into reality. Once in court, state or federal, before judges appointed by Republicans and Democrats, actual witnesses will have to raise their right hands and tell the truth, and then face gale-force cross-examination from lawyers for President-elect Joe Biden’s campaign. It’s one thing to tweet; it’s another thing to testify.

Who is going to explain that to Georgia’s voters? Republican leaders should lay that groundwork now and not cede the field to a president whose interests directly contradict the party’s. Otherwise, they will rue the day they stood silent.

In the meantime, the litigation swirls on, risking, if it is ultimately exposed as unfounded, even more destructive consequences to public trust in the electoral process. Trump says he wants the truth. Surely, therefore, his lawyers will not engage in frivolous arguments, obfuscation, pettifoggery or dilatory tactics that would complicate uncovering the truth, right? Sadly, that has never been Trump’s style during a long career of litigation as a lifestyle.

Republican passivity risks additional negative consequences for the country. Trump is engaging in what could well be a systematic purge of his own administration, starting with the utterly unjustified firing of Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper this week and continuing through high- and mid-level civilian offices in the department. Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, head of the National Nuclear Safety Administration, was forced to resign. Washington is filled with rumors that the CIA and FBI directors are next.

This is being done with just 10 weeks left in the administration. All transitions bring uncertainty, but to decapitate substantial parts of the national-security apparatus during such a period for no reason other than personal pique is irresponsible and dangerous. Republicans know this.

Simultaneously, Trump is frustrating Biden’s transition, based on the 2000 precedent, when George W. Bush’s transition was delayed for 37 days by Al Gore’s contesting the Florida results. Two wrongs don’t make a right. It implies no acknowledgment of Biden’s legitimacy as president-elect for Trump to facilitate prudent transition planning, certainly in the national-security field, nor in finalizing distribution plans for a coronavirus vaccine, which will largely occur next year. At least, that’s how a confident, mature, responsible president would see it.

For the good of America, the 2020 election needs to be brought expeditiously to the conclusion that all logic tells us is coming. National security requires that the transition get underway effectively. These are Republican values. We will acknowledge reality sooner or later. For the good of the party as well as the country, let’s make it sooner.

Donald Trump’s disgraceful behaviour risks doing lasting damage

Post Photo

This article appeared in The Sunday Telegraph on November 7, 2020. Click here to view the original article.

By John Bolton
November 7, 2020

The US presidential race has now widely been called for Joe Biden. The counting has been slower than we’d like, and legal challenges to the process are under way. But if things end as now seems likely, whatever damage the electoral process and the nation’s institutions have suffered in recent days is easily repairable. After the 2000 election, Democratic nominee Al Gore precipitated a contentious recount in Florida – I spent 33 days there on George W Bush’s legal team – and America recovered in due course. We will recover from this, too.

There is, however, one significant caveat: if the Leader of the Free World continues to claim, with essentially no supportive evidence, that the election was stolen through fraud, we will have far more serious problems than merely reconciling disappointed partisans to the reality of defeat.

In the early hours of Wednesday, and again on Thursday evening, Donald Trump asserted unambiguously that he had won the election. He argued that Democrats, in league with corrupt, dishonest or incompetent election officials in six or seven states, were dumping out hundreds of thousands of fake ballots, thereby producing fraudulent majorities affording Biden an Electoral College victory. His surrogates made equally exaggerated claims in multiple state and federal lawsuits, not one of which has brought the Trump campaign any significant vindication, or done the slightest thing to change the results.

This disgraceful performance by the US president is deeply troubling. Any candidate is entitled to express disappointment when he or she loses, complain that life is unfair, and trigger all legitimately available election-law remedies to seek redress for alleged improprieties. Of course, raising claims, however permissible, is not the same as proving them, or showing that even validated claims have had an actual, let alone dispositive, effect on the election itself.
Responsible politicians know that, ultimately, they will pay a price if they go too far, even rhetorically. Apparently, no one ever explained this to Trump, or if they did, he didn’t pay any more attention to it than he usually pays to good advice.

The result is that the Republican Party now faces a character test. The party’s leaders can either reject Trump’s false claims and insist that he provide actual evidence in court, or join in his fantasia and forever tar their own reputations, and that of the party. To date, only a small number of elected Republican officials have commented publicly, evenly divided between these two possibilities. Many more need to speak out, and soon.

There is also a larger question ahead once the election is well and truly behind us, quite possibly once the Electoral College votes, which this year will be on Dec 14. The Republican Party must begin a serious conversation about its new direction going forward, which I hope will return it to a Reaganite approach. It is profoundly wrong to contend, as many commentators already are, that Trump has an iron grip on the party, and will dictate its strategy and determine its candidates from exile at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, perhaps plotting a 2024 Trump presidential campaign.

In fact, Trump’s influence will drop precipitously once he leaves the Oval Office. He will be, in a word he hates, a loser, and the whole world will know it. Only one defeated incumbent president has ever regained the office, and that was, in 1892, Grover Cleveland (who was both the 22nd and 24th president), hardly a compelling precedent. Dozens of prospective 2024 Republican presidential candidates are already lining up. Trump the man will certainly remain a factor, but there is no “Trumpism”; his administration has had no coherent philosophy, certainly not on national security matters. And after Jan 20, the world will no longer hang on every new Trump tweet.

In Washington, attention will shift rapidly to the new Biden administration and its plans, and how well (or poorly) they will fare in a Congress where Republicans probably still control the Senate and Democrats have a diminished majority in the House. Biden faces an angry Left wing in his own party, and his relations with Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, could well be the big political story ahead.

Not all of Trump’s legacy is bad. Millions of blue-collar voters have rejected the Democratic Party’s radicals. Even more inconveniently for the Left, Hispanic support for Republican candidates has swelled nationwide. Without Trump, we can now seek the return of voters whom his behaviour repulsed, and build a long-term Republican governing majority.

Soon again, we will elect a real conservative Republican president.

Reflections on the US’s Guarantee of a Qualitative Military Edge to Israel

Post Photo

By Dr. David Wurmser

August 26, 2020

Just about every article written reacting to the move toward full peace between Israel and the UAE discusses the potential for a sale of the F-35 stealth fighters – an aircraft that is considered to be generations ahead of any other — to the UAE. And almost immediately, the prospect of this sale raises eyebrows in terms of America’s commitment to maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME). Almost every article discussing this refers to the emergence of the QME as a foundation of the United States’ commitment to Israel’s security born of the bitter, and dangerously close to fatal, experience of the 1973 war. There were several facets to it, but the most prominent described are that the shock sustained by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) showed that Israel’s ability to defend itself, given its striking numerical inferiority, depended entirely on the most advanced weaponry. Since the Soviet bloc was selling Israel’s adversaries its most advanced weaponry, it was imperative that the United States, as part of its own reputation in the Cold War, supply Israel with its needs.

This is a strong argument, but unfortunately, the QME did not come about as a result of the Yom Kippur war. One has to travel back another three years to August 1970, to the end of the war generally unknown to all but students of Israeli history and those of us old enough to remember: the War of Attrition. In so correcting the historical record, the QME acquires quite a different flavor and rationale.

Following the Six Days War in 1967, after a stunning Israeli victory over all her neighbors and then some, many – especially in the Israeli government — expected a phone call any minute from Cairo, Damascus and Amman suing for peace. It was not to be. Instead, the Arab world met in Khartoum and on September 1, 1967, issued their famous three “nos:” no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, and no talks with Israel. A constant border war of attrition on both the northern border with Syria along the Bashan mountain ridges of the Golan Heights, and the southern border with Egypt along the Suez Canal followed. This unrecognized “War of Attrition,” as it came to be more commonly known, lasted almost three years, and was one of Israel’s most costly.

While the war was started by Egypt, Israel used the war to overcome a key conundrum: it had limited standing forces able to hold the canal against Egypt’s large army, and thus would have to rely on mobilization. But it could not mobilize indefinitely, since reserve forces represented the bulk of Israel’s adult male population. Thus, the war of attrition launched by Egypt – instead of wearing Israel down – actually gave Israel the ability to constantly apply force to relentlessly pressure Egypt’s armed forces and force them to deploy dozens of kilometers further back. This “buffer” allowed Israel to hold the canal with few forces. Moreover, if Egypt lurched forward, it would take 72 hours to remilitarize this buffer – hence was borne the Israeli anticipation of 72-hour early warning tripwire for war, but it was based on monitoring the physical deployment of the Egyptian army rather than penetrating Egypt’s high command with spies.

When the Egypt sued for a ceasefire, Israel accepted under the expectation that the integrity of the buffer would be maintained, or the war of attrition would be resumed. And sure enough, within days, the Egyptian began moving their forces forward, and just as surely, Israel prepared to resume the War of Attrition to push them back.

But Washington had other ideas. America had just launched the “Roger’s Plan” – the peace process of that day – and believed a resumption of hostilities would derail this promising development. Washington, thus, asked for Israeli restraint. At first, Israel refused, but then Washington offered a strategic exchange to Jerusalem: abandon the preemptive option and ignore Egyptian strategic moves in exchange for an American guarantee of Israel’s military “qualitative edge” over its neighbors.

Israel agreed, and bartered its strategic freedom of maneuver and initiative in exchange for a qualitative military edge (QME) in weaponry. Egypt deployed forward, but Israel was compensated for its strategic passivity with weaponry that established so overwhelming a qualitative advantage over its adversaries, it was said, that deterrence was certain, and even if not, victory would be swift. And American aid to Israel ballooned to pay for it.

So, Israel committed the cardinal sin of strategic planning: it allowed tactics to replace strategy. It allowed intelligence to replace rather than support strategic planning, preparation, positioning, deployment and maneuver. In doing so, it set the stage for catastrophic failure. And that disaster, made inevitable by the lapse in proper strategic planning and surrender of initiative, came on October 6, 1973, when Arab armies launched the Yom Kippur War, blasted through the berms along the Suez Canal, rolled into the Sinai and punched through the Bashan Ridge onto the Golan plateau to the escarpment overlooking the Sea of Galilee.

The 1973 War, however, did not provoke reflection of the origins of the grave failure and strategic planning, and thus did not trigger therein a strategic re-evaluation. Instead, it allowed the interpretation and the war and its failure to descend into an indictment of Israel’s intelligence apparatus. In other words, the examination of the failure of the war continued to embrace the cause of the failure: namely, the reliance on intelligence to replace, rather than support strategy and an strategic posture., and the reliance on qualitative superiority of weapons over strategic imagination, planning, preparation, deployment and initiative. For the political echelon – which is ultimately the level at which strategic planning is properly conducted (since strategy is not a strictly military question) – this was a convenient dodge.

And thus, the after-action evaluation of the Yom Kippur War missed its greatest opportunity to reexamine the by-then eclipsing idea of securing deterrence via a qualitative military edge at the expense of strategic planning, preemption and freedom of strategic maneuver to tee up a decisive victory. Instead, a deadly cycle was joined. Israel depended ever more on cutting edge American arms, relied ever more on US aid to pay for it, which demanded ever more of Israel to subordinate its strategic initiative, maneuver and planning to American regional policies. This progression, in turn, would leave Israel’s will questioned, deterrence weakened and compromised – all of which invited a greater threat which demanded yet more weaponry. Almost always, those policies entailed further Israeli restraint and acquiescence to America’s attempts to downplay its closeness to Israel in order to court key Arab nations, and ultimately to pursue peace processes which exacted concessions from Israel in an attempt to reconcile the two sides of this “balancing” act. The strategic dependence of Israel on the US always guaranteed that Israel’s security establishment would support such restraint and conciliation.

It is undeniable that a certain level of technological superiority is insurmountable. When a modest-sized US military force launched a war from Kuwait in 2003 against Saddam Hussein’s much-vaunted million-man military, its technological superiority in itself became an inescapable strategic reality. And yet, that same technological superiority – which delivered total victory against Iraq within two weeks — helped little in fighting the war waged on the US in that country against the Iranian and Syrian low-tech war of subversion. Indeed, Iran failed over 8 years of war with a half-million dead to register any significant strategic victory, let alone movement, against the Iraqi military to which we laid waste in days. And yet, Iran ultimately inflicted in a much shorter period of time grave, tragic and lasting damage on the US – so much so that it has altered the way the US looks at foreign intervention. Strategic acumen vanquished technology. And what turned around the American war effort in Iraq was ultimately also learned strategic skill – easing Shiite anxiety over a sellout while turning Sunni tribes against al-Qaida’s al-Zarqawi – supported (but not replaced) by critical intelligence to help navigate properly through this strategic maneuver.

Returning to the present, the issue regarding the QME – which is a question of weapons and tactics, not strategy – should be placed in the larger strategic context. Israel should not now bind itself rigidly to this doctrine with a mixed past if it blocks Israel’s ability to take the initiative in crafting a national strategy to deal with the challenges it will face in the coming decades. Indeed, this moment is an invitation to examine for the first time since 1970 the iconic reliance on the QME over strategic imagination and preparation to the exclusion over all else in Israeli planning.

This is especially relevant in terms of the three most important geo-strategic initiatives that Israel must undertake now and for the next several years:

  • ending the reign of the Ayatollahs in Iran,
  • prepare regionally for the neo-Ottoman/Muslim Brotherhood Khaliphate that Erdogan is trying to construct from Morocco to India (and among Muslims everywhere), and
  • act practically on the ground with energy to render irreversible Israel’s presence on the Golan and in major parts Judea and Samaria.

The latter would include stopping Palestinian construction in forbidden areas (Area C under the Oslo Accords), undermining both the Palestinian National Authority’s and Turkey’s intrusions and destructive activity on the Temple Mount, Jerusalem and even among Israel’s Arab citizens, and building of Israeli villages, towns, cities and infrastructure in critical areas of Judea and Samaria – all matters on which Israel has largely dropped the ball.

Only when one considers those three critical strategic imperatives could one then in proper strategic context consider the question of the lifespan of qualitative technological advantages the UAE would gain from an F-35, and weigh that against what one might gain by coordination with Abu Dhabi. And only then can one judge whether the sale would constitute so great a threat to the basic functioning of the Israel Defense Forces that it would become a strategic threat in itself and annul any gain there might be in enlisting the UAE’s coordination, or at least acquiescence, in strategic initiatives and alliances to address these three strategic imperatives that will affect in the long run Israel’s borders and its survival.

Israel’s High Court Risks Becoming a Tyranny of Judges

Post Photo

By Dr. David Wurmser
May 2, 2020

Israel’s courts and Israeli democracy

Several weeks ago, Yuli Edelstein, the Speaker of Israel’s Knesset (Parliament) resigned to avoid implementing an Israeli supreme court (High Court of Justice-HCJ) edict to reconvene parliament and hold a vote to oust himself. Not only did the HCJ ruling upturn delicate negotiations for a national unity government, but its interference compromised the independence of the legislative branch and escalated this particular political crisis to a crisis of governance.
Moreover, the HCJ accepted appeals by several leftist factions and organizations to consider motions early next week to annul the agreement establishing the current unity government under Likud party caretaker Prime Minister Netanyahu and the centrist Blue-White Party leader, Benny Gantz. Should it do so, it would throw Israel into a fourth round of elections and dangerously undermine the credibility of the courts.

Culture pivots away from Europe but the courts do not

The roots of this crisis are deeper and older than the current round of actions by the HCJ. The composition of the legal elites, including the community of judges, of Israel is an anachronism. In contrast to how vacancies on courts are filled in the US — either through a process of appointment by the elected strata of the state or through elections – sitting courts and dominant lawyers of Israel themselves largely dictate the process of naming judges to vacancies since its creation in 1948. As such, the legal community in Israel, especially the courts, has been an insular, closed circle since the State’s founding.

At independence, Israel was almost entirely Ashkenazi (European Jewish), aggressively secular, Kibbutz-based and strongly left-leaning. All structures of state power from independence in 1948 until the first election of a non-Labor government in 1977 maintained a political litmus test of belonging to the dominant Labor Party for appointment, and thus the upper strata of the military, academia, courts, bureaucracy, state-run industry, cultural institutions and so forth were all homogenous Labor Party stalwarts. They were Israel’s “Mayflower” elites, who claimed to have been the only ones who created the nation, and thus should rightfully rule over the state.

And yet, Israeli society and culture have advanced so far beyond that original “Mayflower” composition and political orientation. It is a country dominated now by the very populations largely disenfranchised by the early socialist state: Sephardi (oriental Jews), Russian and Ethiopian immigrants, those Jews lapsed but still respectful of religion, Jews who remained traditional and religious, settlers, liberal-nationalists and religious-nationalists. The result in terms of political shifts is dramatic. While Labor held the premiership continuously from independence until 1977, it has held the premiership only 8 of the last 43 years since. There has not been a prime minister from the Labor Party since the millennium turned and Clinton was sill president. In fact, the eclipsing force of Israel for its first three decades, the Labor Party, can alone no longer even muster the required three percent of the vote to cross the threshold to maintain any seats in the Knesset. Either a centrist, center-right or right block government has

ruled Israel since the late 1990s. Even the officer corps of Israel’s military, one of the last bastions of the old elite, has in the last two decades yielded to the bewildering medley of Israeli society and of their own ranks, and begun to more closely reflect the composition of society at large. In contrast, the ruling legal elites and courts in Israel are a holdout of an Israel transcended by an intensely dynamic society, and are thus now starkly out of alignment with the society in which they live and judge.

This disconnect is exacerbated by an accompanying shift in the fundamental concepts that inform the purpose of the court. The north star of Israeli politics – including how it views the role of the courts in government — until the early 1970s was Europe, and in particular France and the world of continental European politics in the two centuries since the French revolution.
Israel’s legal system both originally and still today looks to pattern its role and rulings to European courts, especially the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) and its subordinate European Court of Justice (ECJ) and General Court (GC). Apart from a difference over whether rights are inherent and inalienable or granted by the state, European courts, led by the CJEU, believe their role is also to monitor the institutions of Europe –state and private — to ensure that they operate and implement the spirit of the European Union. They not only assume judicial review of laws to ensure they are consistent with the EU founding documents and principles, but they also stand in judgement over other state institutions as the ultimate authority of defining and ensuring their behavior accords with and advances the EU’s political program and aims. In other words, they rule foremost to enforce and ensure the political ideals of the EU.

Politically and culturally, however, Israel today is oriented far less toward Europe and more toward the United States. Israel’s politicians, justice ministers, research institutions and a growing body of legal scholars increasingly view the United States and Britain as the touchstone for understanding basic political concepts and theories, even of law. The appointment several years ago of Ayelet Shaqed (currently of the Yamina party), as the Justice Minister, both symbolized and accelerated that shift. Shaqed had written extensively on how Israel should embark on wide-ranging legal reform, and that it should look to the legal philosophy and the role of the judiciary as understood in the United States, rather than continental Europe. One of her seminal articles defining her reform effort was published in 2016 by the Hashiloach Institute, under the title “Tracks to Governance (Mesilot el Meshilut).”

The battle lines were thus drawn in Israel. On one side was a “Mayflower” continental European- oriented legal elite and a continental European-oriented leftist minority which saw the activist, program-oriented and commissar-like concept of courts as a powerful tool to steer Israeli culture to more comfortable forms. On the other was an increasingly American-oriented political and legal rebellion bolstered by its vast alignment with a dynamic Israeli society far evolved from the world of its “Mayflower” elites and the politicians championing them.

The courts, judgeships, and committees appointing judges have now become the battleground in this battle of two fundamentally different visions of the role of the judiciary, and ultimately of Israeli society.

As a result, there has been an attempt by the legal elite in Israel, along with supporters from the left side of Israel’s spectrum, to raise not only the stature, but the legal status, of the HCJ — as

their last bastion of power — to a prima inter pares, or even elevated Olympian committee overseeing all other “lesser” branches and demanding their approval for all their actions. In other words, they seek to become the Israeli chapter of the CJEU, ECJ and GC. This effort is increasingly intense in recent years for two reasons. First, the left has found itself unable to win an election enough to form a governing coalition, and thus seeks to disempower the elected branches of government at the expense of the unelected but sympathetic judicial branch. Second, the elected Israeli governments of the last decade have made judicial reform – especially the idea of opening the closed, self-preserving circle of judicial appointments – a top priority. The frustration of losing power election after election, and the despair of being challenged by reform, has made both the left and the legal elites and judges view the current situation, and especially the trendlines which hold no hope for a reversal (indeed promise only to deepen and accelerate) in stark terms with their backs against the wall.

From judicial review to the rule of judges

The HCJ chief justice from 1995-2006, Aharon Barak, is largely credited or blamed (whether you are on the left or right) with expanding the writ of the Israeli courts. Until then, Israel’s HCJ applied the “standing” test to any appeal – namely did the appealing party have a sufficient connection to the appeal or law under question, or to its consequences, that it justifies that party’s participation in the case. Barak expanded beyond the requirement of “standing” into judicial activism to do two things. First to raise the body of Basic Laws to the status of a de facto constitution, and second, to assume jurisdiction to essentially legislate over any area in which there is a gap in the basic laws. Barak’s judicial activism certainly made many in Israel nervous, but at the same time, Barak still conceived of the court in terms of validating or completing a generally-acknowledged incomplete set of founding laws. He might have also moved into judicial legislation, but limited it mostly to clear areas of vacuum.

Increasingly, however, in recent years the “judicial review” or “filling the gaps” role demanded by the HCJ under Barak has yielded to courts which act without reference to any foundational law, such as a basic law (which Israel has) or constitution (which Israel does not have), or any precedential body of laws (Israel still derives precedents from both British law and in some cases Ottoman law). Instead, courts rely increasingly on the foundation of lofty, and often outright
“invented” and almost always vague theoretical principles appropriate to their Olympian superiority. And almost always, those principles are mere cover for an attempt to rule in the spirit of, and in alignment with, the theoretical ideals and aims of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) and its accompanying EU-based courts, the ECJ and GC. In short, Israeli courts increasingly envision their mission to be to ensure Israel remains tied culturally and politically to continental Europe and the European Union.

While the Barak court used gaps to legitimize an activist judicial policy, recent behaviors by not only the HCJ, but even lower courts, are directly challenging the power of the executive agencies and legislative branch in order to raise the court system in Israel to a superior position to all other branches of government. For example, several years ago, the Israeli government came to an agreement with the natural gas producers in Israel to suspend proceedings to penalize them as a monopoly in exchange for which they would sell off part of their assets, agree to limits to export, and set a mutually agreed-upon price with the government. This was done through the Anti-

Trust Authority, namely an executive branch agency, and then voted upon by the Knesset, namely the legislative branch. A group of environmental and left-wing opponents of the agreement who wanted to obstruct Israel’s production and export of natural gas appealed to the Tel Aviv district court. The court ruled not only that the appealing parties need not demonstrate “standing” at all, but also ruled that the agreement was inappropriate since the Anti-Trust Authority cannot be considered to have statutory authority. Only a court has legal authority, and thus only a court can rule on monopolies and set prices, not the executive or legislative branches. It asserted that the Anti-Trust Authority is thus no more than an advisory body for the legal branch which alone has the power to compel, rule or set prices. In other words, this Tel Aviv Court was not ruling on natural gas per se, but on establishing not only the jurisdiction of the judicial branch, but its power over all matters in all other branches of government without reference to the Basic Law or precedent. It represented a seizure of power from a clearly defined and legally grounded executive branch authority, not an assertion of power in a vacuum or gap. In short, the Tel Aviv Circuit Court envisioned its mission and authority as the Israeli parallel of the ECJ, whose writ is to ensure all state institutions operate in the spirit of the ideal of the EU.

This sense of superiority over all other branches of government has led Israeli courts to expand their authority to the point at which they feel it is appropriate to intervene whenever they believe the electorate, the legislative branch, or executive agencies fail to live up to a set of ad hoc, often invented, concepts of “democracy” or “efficiency.”

In other words, the courts have expanded their power and established their superiority in order to postion themselves as the mechanism of validating and legislating their vision of culture and politics, let alone policy. They have become the self-appointed (and continuously self-
appointing) “adults” standing over all facets of Israeli society and judging its desirability and appropriateness – which is precisely why the courts have become so important for Israel’s left. Just as the courts’ and legal elites’ composition has increasingly become unaligned with Israel culture, society and politics, so too has Israel’s left been losing out politically and culturally in otherwise permanent structural ways. Increasingly unaligned with broader Israeli society, the left and judicial elites are equally aligned with each other.

This was not lost on centrist and right-leaning Israeli politicians. One of the most important efforts of the last half decade were the judicial reforms championed by the Justice Minister of the previous government, Ayelet Shaqed. At the center of her efforts at reform were to break the closed circle of judicial appointments – thus attempting to align the judicial branch and the legal elites more closely with the flavor of Israeli society. She not only opened up appointments to a far broader cross section of lawyers representing all the hitherto disenfranchised communities in the highest rungs of the legal structures, but also changed the appointment process from one allowing the current elites and judges to dominate the choosing of their successors to a committee drawn from the democratically elected stratum of government and committee members from a wide spectrum of Israeli society. For Israel’s “Mayflower” legal elites and their allies on the left, this crossed the Rubicon. They saw themselves at war for survival against the emerging culture, its political champions and the legal rebellion waged. In that war, who rules Israel (and thus appoints its judges) became the bottom line of survival.

The rule of judges triggers a government crisis

In response, the current HCJ under the chief justice, Esther Hayut, has taken the concept of judicial supremacy to the highest level, and is maneuvering the court into the hazardous terrain of deciding “who rules Israel” to the very top.

The last month has revealed the extent of the problem. Acting on behalf of the factions in parliament seeking to undermine the national unity negotiations, she jettisoned legislative independence and authority and executive agency statutes and traditions, and applied vague and unknown legal principles, such as “efficiency of the court” and “essence of democracy.”

The “efficiency of the court” concept was evoked to deny a motion on Monday (April 27) by coalitional lawyers to have two or three days’ time to formulate their answers to the appeals and formally submit them, given that Tuesday and Wednesday were national holidays. Instead, she decided, the HCJ itself will gather internal discussions, initial responses and statements made hitherto, and rule that they constitute for the defense what their defending arguments will be so that the hearing can proceed for Sunday (May 3) without delay. In other words, the HCJ assumed the rights traditionally left for the defense on how they will argue their defense, and did so not through law or precedent, but some murky legal principle of efficiency.

The latter concept, the “essence of democracy,” was used to justify ordering the abandonment of tradition and rules of the Knesset to force Yuli Edelstein to convene parliament and hold a vote to terminate his own speakership, even though this violated all precedents and traditions, as well as compromised the ability of the legislative branch to set, or in this case preserve, its own internal rules, ways and means. What was even more disturbing was the political undertone of the ruling: its ruling at the behest of an appeal by the opposition party faction (Yesh Atid) to force the Knesset to act in a way that would have sabotaged the unity talks – namely it interfered in the final phase of the election cycle (coalitional negotiations to from a government) to achieve a political, not legal, result. It was this violation of the legislative branch’s independence which led Yuli Edelstein – a human rights activist who earlier had been imprisoned in the Soviet Union for his advocacy of freedom — to submit his resignation in protest.

Which brings us to the current appeals and the crisis they threaten, starting on May 3.

The coming showdown

Early next week, the supreme court will rule on three separate aspects which could unravel the unity government. The first is whether a prime minister can be appointed or continue to rule while under indictment. Israel’s basic law says he can. Some on the left argue that this does not apply to an interim government – although the Basic Law states that an interim caretaker government (one that rules between when Parliament dissolves until a new coalition is agreed and a new government sworn in) has all the rights and responsibilities of a regular government. Of course, this is at any rate irrelevant (or at least should be) in terms of the new unity government, since it represents precisely the termination of an interim caretaker government and its replacement with a permanent one. The attorney general of Israel, who is not considered sympathetic to Prime Minister Netanyahu (he issued the indictment against him, in fact), has

already issued his opinion that under both Israel’s Basic law and the precedent of British Law, an indictment does not justify preventing the appointment of a prime minister either as an interim caretaker or permanent since he must be allowed the presumption of innocence. At any rate, in an outright attempt to both legislate and undermine the existing and clearly written terms of the Basic Law, the appeals on this issue seek to use the courts to change the Basic Law in direct opposition to its current terms or spirit.

The second cluster of appeals argue that the terms of the coalition agreement must be annulled since they would involve changes to existing legislation, and that can be done only by the Knesset. The lawyers for the unity coalitional government argue that the Knesset vote to accept the national unity government – which is considered an act of legislation – supercedes the laws it might contradict and thus becomes the new law, as would any other legislation. In contrast, the appeals by the left to the HCJ assert that those laws must have been changed prior to the agreement’s having been reached, since the agreement thus would have been signed that includes binding provisions at variance with Israeli law. As such, they argue, the law cannot really even be brought to a vote since it is not consistent with current law.

The third cluster may not be major enough to derail the agreement to form a national unity government, but it could seriously complicate its terms enough to threaten its having to be reopened. It involves a finance issue and is intricate enough to rise to the level of Talmudic discussion.

The Blue-White party was an amalgam of three parties: the Yesh Atid party under Yair Lapid, the Telem Party under Moshe Yaalon, and the Hosen party under Benjamin Gantz, which held the lion’s share of the Blue-White list. As the national unity talks culminated and an agreement
was signed, the Yesh Atid and Telem parties refused to join, and the Blue-White Party split, with Gantz’s faction being able to retain the name of the umbrella party (Blue White). Two other Knesset members, Yoaz Handel and Tzvi Hauser, broke with their mother party, Telem, and voted with Gantz to establish the national unity government. To do so, they formed a new faction within the Blue White party, called Derekh Eretz (a play on words meaning both
“respect” or “the path of the country”), as part of the truncated Blue-White party. The Telem party, however, refuses to allow the Knesset to pay and support the new Derekh Eretz faction, or to allow the Blue-White party to assume the Knesset disbursement, instead claiming that the two Knesset seats still must be calculated as part of the Telem party from which they split. In short, Telem and Yesh Atid receive payments for two more Knesset seats than they have, and Blue- White party is paid two less seats than it holds. To note, Tzvi Hauser is one of only two appointments to critical positions named in particular in the coalition agreement. Passage 26 names him to become the chairman of the powerful Knesset Foreign and Defense Policy Committee, as well as the Blue-White representative to the powerful Committee to Appoint Judges, so this payment issue is really a back-door attempt to gut several critical passages of the coalitional agreement (those dealing with the formation of the Knesset defense and Foreign Affairs Committee and the Committee to Appoint Judges) which refer to Hauser. To overcome this problem, the Knesset voted to pay separately for the Derekh Eretz faction consistent with all other factions while still paying the Telem faction for the two seats it actually does not hold. In short, the parliament is funding 122 of its 120 seats. The left has submitted an appeal to the HCJ demanding the court annul it and strip Derekh Eretz of funding.

Given how important the Committee to Appoint Judges is to the entire judicial reform process, one can understand how important the preservation of Clause 26 of the unity government agreement, which names Hauser as the Blue-White party representative to the committee, is.
Which is precisely why the opponents have zeroed in on this in several of their appeals.

At this writing, it is unclear whether the HCJ will rule against the unity government in part, all or none of the appeals.

Conclusion

Israel is not alone in having faced such crises early in its life. The United States was less than a decade old when the lack of clarity of the Constitution in defining the power and role of the US Supreme Court — came to the fore. In 1789, precisely because the Constitution only set up the Supreme Court and limited its power as a court of original jurisdiction but was rather vague on the power of the rest of the nations’ courts, Congress passed a law vastly empowering the Supreme Court. A decade later, a Constitutional crisis emerged between President-elect Jefferson and his Secretary of State James Madison on one side, and the outgoing president John Adams and a court appointee he named, William Marbury on the other. The exact nature of the conflict is not important here but suffice it to note that the Chief Justice at the time, John Marshall, understood he was entering exceedingly dangerous terrain. If he sided with Adams and Marbury, then the incoming president would regard the court as a pawn of Adam’s Federalist party, therein severely undermining the authority and credibility of the court, perhaps even to the point where Jefferson would use the power of the presidency to impair it permanently. At the same time, buckling completely to the demands of Jefferson and Madison would expose the court as subject to political pressure, therein damning the court into constant political pressure for eternity. Justice Marshall knew the law was with Adams and Marbury, but nonetheless thread a very delicate line that ironically limited its own power to at once empower the court, establish its independence and preserve its credibility. Marshall gave and took to and from both sides. He ruled that Marbury was entitled to his commission, but that the 1789 Judicial Act overstepped the bounds of the Constitution, and that the court therefore could not be a court of original jurisdiction. In doing so, he established that the Supreme Court cannot change the will of the executive and legislative branch, but that it has the power of review of their actions. And yet, at the same time, that right of review exists only within the point of reference of the Constitution and distinctly not as an alternative legislative or superior power. Thus, paradoxically, Marshall preserved, indeed strengthened, the power of future courts by limiting the power of his own court and those that follow.

A century and a half later, one of the greatest legal minds ever in the United States, Judge Learned Hand, nailed down the issue even more precisely and overtly. He argued that not only is the US Congress’s legislation a reflection of the democratic will of the people, but that the US Constitution is itself legislation, and thus a manifestation of will of the people. Judicial review and overturning legislation, is therefore a serious affair – since it is by its nature an act contradicting the democratic will – and can only be done in strict reference to the founding act of democratic will, the US Constitution. One cannot at the same time undermine the democratic foundation for legislation (arrogating it instead to the courts) while appealing to the democratic

sanctity of the founding legislation enshrined by the very existence of the Constitution. He wrote, thus, that a court simply cannot overrule the legislation of an elected body in anything other than an extreme circumstance. To legislate from the bench is, thus, no less than establishing the tyranny of an unelected court.

Israel is facing its Marbury moment. Like Marshall, Justice Hayut will need to limit the power of her own court to preserve its credibility and establish its defined authority going forward. She would need to take the appeals seriously enough to establish that she is not simply buckling to the pressures of the unity government, but she needs to avoid taking a political stance and siding with the left in a scheme to torpedo the unity government and force new elections, which would strip the court of credibility as neutral, therein truly undermining the rule of law.

Will she do that? Sadly, doing so would be a departure from her judicial behavior thus far. Her actions over the last week elicit concern. Moreover, in the hearing to order Speaker Edelstein to convene parliament to vote himself out of office immediately, she never crafted her ruling in legal terms, nor do the minutes of the hearing indicate any genuine discussion on her part of the legal complexities of this case. Instead, she, much like the CJEU appealed to ideals rather than law. She acted summarily in the name of “preserving the essence of democracy.” She has gone quite some distance already in recent rulings toward creating precisely the dangerous condition Judge Learned Hand warned about nearly a century ago: a tyranny of the courts.

Moreover, she is not alone. The established judges and legal elites, along with the left side of the political spectrum in Israel, have joined forces to preserve the supremacy of a bygone elite and their world view. It is a dangerous trend. But courts cannot and should not control, let alone change, cultures, and they will discredit themselves trying. Simply, courts cannot exist as powerful, credible and neutral in opposition to the culture and will of the people, let alone be able to lord over their populations while passing moral, social and political judgements against it for long.